Open four browser tabs and search the same six-digit zip code in Warm Springs, and you will get four different neighborhoods. One site tells you the median home sold for $649,500 last month. Another puts the average value near $1.74 million. A third reports $1.9 million for the same general period. None of these numbers is wrong. They are measuring different things, and the difference matters more than the number itself if you are trying to figure out what your budget actually buys here.
Four Numbers, One Zip Code
In August 2026, Movoto's tracking showed a median sold price of $649,500 for homes in Warm Springs. Around the same window, Zillow's home value index for the neighborhood sat at roughly $1.74 million, essentially flat over the prior year. Redfin's February 2026 snapshot put the median at $1.9 million, but that figure came from only eleven single-family sales that month, a sample small enough that one high-end closing can swing the whole average. Homes.com, meanwhile, publishes two different trailing twelve-month medians on different pages of its own site: $1,345,000 on one, $1,394,450 on another.
None of these sources made an error. Warm Springs sells so few single-family homes in any given month, eleven in February 2026 and seventeen in February 2025, that the "median" is less a stable price and more a snapshot of whatever happened to close. A month with three condo sales and one estate sale looks nothing like a month with ten single-family homes and no condos. The portals are reporting real transactions. They are just reporting different slices of a housing stock that does not behave like one market.
Warm Springs Is Actually Three Housing Markets
The reason the median jumps around so much is that Warm Springs never developed as a single, uniform product. It grew in layers, and each layer trades in its own price band.
At the low end sit smaller-format condos, the one-bedroom and studio product scattered through the neighborhood's older complexes. One representative unit on Warm Springs Boulevard, 800 square feet, sold in February 2026 for $633,000, or $791 per square foot. In the middle sits new construction from Toll Brothers' Metro West master plan, priced from roughly $1.3 million into the mid-$1.6 millions depending on floorplan and lot premium, a range confirmed by an actual Victoria Station closing in February 2026 at $1,599,000 for 2,647 square feet. At the top, legacy single-family detached homes trade well past $2.7 million. A five-bedroom home on Gamay Court, built in 1985, sold in August 2025 for $2,775,000 after just seven days on market, 39 percent above its asking price.
A buyer comparing "the Warm Springs median" to a number in Ardenwood or Mission San Jose is comparing an average of three different products to a single, more consistent product elsewhere. The number is real. It just isn't describing one neighborhood the way a median usually implies.
What Metro West Actually Built, and Why It's Ending
The middle tier is worth understanding in detail, because it is the newest and the one most likely to shape what buyers see on the ground over the next few years.
Metro West is the master-planned community built around the BART Warm Springs/South Fremont station, and Toll Brothers developed it in two distinct pieces. Kensington Station is the townhome product, with floorplans ranging from 1,303 to 2,564 square feet and a two-car garage in every unit. Victoria Station is the denser, stacked-flat condo product built above ground-floor retail, offered in four designs (Kingwood, Thurnby, Wetherby, and Woodbury) running 2,000 to 2,600 square feet with three bedrooms and up to four bathrooms.
Two details matter for anyone budgeting against this product. First, Toll Brothers marketed the community with no Mello-Roos tax, a special assessment that adds meaningfully to the carrying cost of many new-construction developments elsewhere in the Bay Area. Its absence here is a real, ongoing savings, not a one-time incentive. Second, as of the fall 2025 announcement, Toll Brothers moved into what it called the final opportunity to purchase in the Metro West plan, with the sales center on Inspiration Way already working through its last building. That means the new-construction inventory that has been anchoring the middle price tier is finite and closing out. Once those units sell, buyers looking for a similar product in Warm Springs will be shopping resale, not a builder price sheet, and resale pricing on five- and six-year-old Toll Brothers product tends to track differently than new-build pricing did.
The location logic behind the project is straightforward: walking distance to BART Warm Springs/South Fremont, quick access to both I-880 and I-680, and a brand-new elementary school within walking distance of the community. None of that changes the fact that the product itself, new-construction condos and townhomes, is a different animal from the detached homes a mile away, and pricing the two as one market obscures more than it reveals.
Why This Matters If You're Comparing Neighborhoods, Not Just Homes
The published median is not a bad number. It is the wrong tool for the question most buyers are actually asking, which is some version of "what does my price range get me here compared to somewhere else."
A buyer working with $700,000 in Warm Springs is shopping the smaller condo stock, full stop. That budget does not reach the Toll Brothers product and never will, regardless of what the neighborhood-wide median implies about affordability. A buyer at $1.4 million is shopping the tail end of Metro West's remaining inventory, competing against a shrinking supply of new construction. A buyer above $1.8 million is in the detached resale market, the tier where the Gamay Court home sold in a week at 39 percent over ask, because that segment draws a different kind of competition than the condo tier does.
The median tells you what closed last month. It does not tell you what you can afford this month, and in a neighborhood built in three distinct layers, those are very different questions.
This is the piece that gets lost when a neighborhood guide leads with a single price point. Warm Springs rewards a buyer who knows which layer they are shopping in before they start touring, because cross-shopping a $750,000 condo against a $2 million detached home under the same "median" is not a useful comparison, it is a category error.
Quick Answers
Why does the median price swing so much month to month? Warm Springs sells very few single-family homes in any given month, as few as eleven in February 2026. A single high-value closing or a month heavy with condo sales can shift the median significantly, which is why the same neighborhood can show a $649,500 median in one reporting window and a $1.9 million median in another depending purely on transaction mix.
Is new construction still available at Metro West? As of the most recent builder announcement, Toll Brothers had moved into its final phase of homes at Victoria Station, with limited remaining inventory. Buyers who want new construction in this specific location should expect a narrowing window before that supply is gone and the market shifts to resale.
Does the "no Mello Roos" detail actually matter? Yes, in ongoing cost terms. Many new-construction communities in the Bay Area carry a Mello-Roos special tax assessment on top of standard property tax, sometimes for decades. Its absence at Metro West is a real reduction in carrying cost, not a marketing footnote.
If you are trying to figure out which of these three Warm Springs markets actually fits your budget, and how that compares to what the same money buys in Ardenwood, Mission San Jose, or Pleasanton, that is exactly the kind of local read that does not show up on a portal page. The Joseph Sabeh Group has spent years watching how these submarkets behave season to season, and we are glad to walk through what your specific number actually means here. Work With Us.
